In my previous market report, I had concluded that the state of the Toronto real estate market would really be told by the activity levels in the three weeks following ‘back to School’ in September. The summer months were remarkably slow, and we all waited in anticipation for what was to come when the fall market commenced.

Historically, we shift into our second busiest selling season in the fall when new listing levels increase and buyer activity spikes following the slower summer months. Given the continuous market uncertainty and news of further increases in mortgage rates, the September 2022 market report’s data indicates buyers continue to stay on the sidelines and sellers seem to be holding out for a market with more certainty.

Reflecting on the past two September market reports, the opening paragraph of the TRREB Market Watch in September 2021 read that “sales were at the third-highest mark on record for September,” and in 2020 that sales “set a new record for September” (totalling 11,083 sales). However, this year’s sales for September reached only 5,038.

Declines in average sale prices are evident in every category, save for the condominium segment where prices are most affordable. The average sale price in Toronto-based condominiums (in the ‘416’) increased by 3.4%. In contrast, overall detached home prices in the ‘416’ decreased by 11%. Similar to my previous market update, I will highlight that all districts within Toronto’s boundaries are seeing varying adjustments in price, so the 11% should not be attributed to every single detached home. We are happy to break down the averages within your neighbourhood should you wish to inquire directly.

The more typical surge of sales in September leading up to Thanksgiving usually fuels the secondary fall market in the latter part of October and into November. To put it clearly, the buyers who purchased property in September then list their back-up properties for sale in late October and early November thereby generating the final sales results for the year. Given the very low sales results in September (new listings down 47% and sales down 44% overall), it can easily be predicted that the ‘fall market’ for Toronto real estate will come to a faster halt than in years past.

When markets are transitioning like this, it is critical to connect with experienced agents when venturing into the real estate world. Agents that actively buy and sell in up or down markets have the most precise sense of motivations and value shifts. Gone are the days when any realtor could stick a sign on the lawn and wait for offers. Strategies, relationships and negotiation experience are paramount to real estate success when navigating a transitioning market.

We are always open to discussing the market on a more personal level, so please don’t hesitate to call, email or set up a coffee date to better understand the market with us.