At the point of writing this report, the June statistics are clearly reflecting the anticipated shift in the Toronto marketplace as a result of the continued increase in interest rates. The sales data produced at the end of June shows a remarkable 41 percent decline from sales achieved in June 2021. Buyers have pulled back from the frenzied market of the first quarter of 2022, and are taking time to consider the impact of the mortgage rate increases while waiting to get a clearer understanding of where average sale prices will end up. The average sale price came in at $1,146,254 and while it is 5% higher than June of 2021, a clearer reflection of the current market trends may be more accurately represented by reviewing the month-over-month changes (both in price and unit sales) since the peak of the market in February of 2022.

In February 2022 the average sale price sat at $1,332,554 and there were a remarkable 9097 sales that month. In March the sales increased to 10,995, but we began to see the average sale price drop to an average of $1,299,894. Since March, the average sale price has dropped between 2-3% each month.

While the prices are declining from the peak, it is promising to see that they are not dramatically falling as a result of the rate increases. We could all agree that the average sale price in February was unsustainable, and many of the sales that transacted at that point were at elevated prices that held little logic behind them, merely fuelled by insatiable demand with historically low interest rates.

The Toronto real estate market continues to be a dominant and exciting discussion point in the media, at dinner parties and all social events. Predictions ebb and flow for what lies ahead and while I cannot predict with certainty where this market is headed, I am seeing opportunities in the central markets that have not been available to buyers in many years. While a recession is nearly certain in our future, the resilience of the Toronto real estate market has always rebounded with confidence due to the breadth of employment opportunities in our fine city, the world class educational opportunities available here, and the consistent immigration numbers we experience on an annual basis.

While the overall market is adjusting, each Toronto neighbourhood is unique in its location, its community aspects and its housing types. General market data can be inaccurate for all segments, price points and types of housing, especially in Toronto. Our team is ready and enthusiastic to discuss the market trends in your specific neighbourhood, and welcome your calls or emails to engage in meaningful and specific data for you.

For further reading, please take a look at Chestnut Park CEO Chris Kapches’ market report for June 2022.